Category Unpredictability

Police Activity!

Steve Chapman at Reason writes:

Isaac Newton formulated three laws of motion, No. 3 being: For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. If he were still around, he’d propose a fourth: For every action, there is an unequal and opposite overreaction.

[...]

Last week, a 17-year-old knucklehead exposed his idiocy to the world by venturing onto the field at a Philadelphia Phillies game and running around waving a towel. When a pursuing policeman got weary of the chase, he pulled out his Taser and shot the kid.

For that, the officer won praise from players, sportscasters, and city police commissioner Charles Ramsey, who said the cop “acted appropriately. I support him 100 percent.” The cop was in line with department policy, Ramsey said, because “he was attempting to make an arrest and the male was attempting to flee.”

The recommendations from the Taser company themselves, as well as from something called the Police Executive Research Forum says that people should only be zapped if they are dangerous, but I’m sure that nobody is surprised to hear that the officer in question ‘acted appropriately’. No matter what havoc police wreak, they are always found, after the fact, in an investigation that’s secret because it’s a ‘personnel matter’, to have ‘followed appropriate procedures’. The procedures that, appropriately followed, apparently produce results that the public doesn’t think make sense are, of course, never questioned.

I was reminded of all of this by a traffic report I heard while driving around this morning; a couple blocks of 6th St. NW in Washington is closed ‘due to police activity’. This is troubling for a couple of reasons.

First, because in these cases you rarely hear actual information about what’s going on. DDOT says on Twitter that it’s for a ‘suspicious package’. You don’t need to know this to make decisions about your route, but hearing reports of ‘police activity’ just kind of creeps me out. ‘Police business, citizen. Nothing to see here.’ The word ‘citizen’ would be said here with a sneer; it’s not a term of respect. Civis Americanus sum, which, for the benefit of those whose Latin is rusty, these days increasingly means something like ‘Shut up and go away’.

Second, ‘police activity’ always trumps everything else, without any need for further justification. In the case of a ‘suspicious package’, shutting down two blocks of a significant thoroughfare might be the right action; if it’s a bomb and it explodes, people will complain that the cops didn’t shut down enough streets. The real problem is that the threshold for what counts as ‘suspicious’ is ridiculously low. What’s a suspicious package? Any package. Or any bag of old tube socks. You’re not allowed to question this reasoning.

‘Police activity’ of the kind that shuts down roads, though, usually means a collision; sometimes they’ll call this a ‘police investigation’ on the radio. These situations are particularly galling; take a few pictures, and then pick up the bodies and shove the wrecked cars off the road. What’s there to investigate? Two or more cars ran into one another. One of the drivers is probably more at fault than the other; but determining this to 99% confidence does not justify shutting down half the lanes on the Interstate (and creating unsafe traffic for miles around; remember that the official justification for draconian enforcement of traffic laws is to enhance safety) for an hour.

This is no concern of the police and of the traffic authorities, though; they are already where they need to be, and if they’re not, they have sirens and flashing lights. All those people backed up in traffic? Presumably they’ve got some business of their own to attend to, but as it’s non-police business, how important can it possibly be?

And this same kind of idiocy extends to the ‘suspicious package’ business. The traffic report of 6th Street being closed has a timestamp of 8:35 a.m. on it, so the road was closed some time prior to that: let’s be generous and say 8:30. It’s currently 10 a.m., so traffic in downtown Washington has been screwed up for an hour and a half, so far.

Here’s the solution: build a deformable, high-density box — kevlar lined with ferroconcrete lined with lead lined with more kevlar, maybe — with a big hole on one side, and a big hook on the opposite side. Outfit the inside of this box with TV cameras and lights and robot arms. Put this box on the back of a flatbed truck, and equip the flatbed truck with police lights and a siren and a small crane. This truck is a standard item, used for delivering building supplies. Park this thing in a police garage.

When a ‘suspicious package’ is found, deploy the truck to the scene (with a siren and lights, you can get between any two points in DC in 20 minutes at the most), lower this box over the package, withdraw to a safe distance, and examine the thing by remote control. If it’s a bomb, you might have to shut down streets etc. to get it out of there or to detonate it in place. If it’s not a bomb, you now know this and can get the hell out of there and let the city get on about its business.

To the government, though, the police business is the real business of the city.

How Not To Launch A Product

So let’s imagine that you’re a big company that has particular expertise in selling things online, things which are later delivered by UPS et al.

And let’s say that you’re launching a big product that you hope will create a whole new market segment for yourself.

Don’t you think you’d have the sense to have enough of the things in stock? Or at least to not have a clogged supply pipeline?

This morning, Amazon launched the Kindle e-book reader thingy, which seems like something that I might be able to make good use of.

I looked at it, and read some reviews, and provisionally decided to buy it. Since my schedule isn’t all about buying things from Amazon, though, I took care of some actual revenue generation first. After having read a few more favorable reviews, I clicked on the ‘Overnight 1-Click’ button, which, thanks to my Amazon Prime membership, causes things to show up here the next morning for $4 extra.

But the Kindle won’t be here tomorrow; oh, no. Apparently, when the west coast woke up, the thing sold out. I suppose I can understand that.

But they’re not just sold out for today: after I ordered, the website said that they’ll be in stock on November 21, i.e. the day after tomorrow.

Now, the day after tomorrow is the day before Thanksgiving, so presumably they’ll hand the thing off to UPS, who will park it in a truck somewhere while they all go eat turkey.

The day after Thanksgiving is also a UPS holiday.

UPS doesn’t deliver on Saturdays or Sundays.

So the newly-launched product that I ordered today with extra premium one-day shipping will arrive, according to Amazon’s shipping-predictor, seven days from now.

You’d think that Amazon, of all companies, would understand the customer-satisfaction risks of launching a product for UPS delivery with what appears to be insufficient stock on the Monday before Thanksgiving. But no. Instead we get another example of why I avoid mail-order products in general. Even when dealing with a company like Amazon, which has a great reputation and a lot of expertise, there are too many random disappointments.

How many people will not get a demonstration of this thing from the family geek at Thanksgiving because of this?

Why I Don't Trust UPS

On Sunday night, I ordered some shoes from Zappos. I spent enough that I got free overnight shipping, which would ordinarily have meant that they would get here on Tuesday.

On Tuesday afternoon, we had a snowstorm, and UPS didn’t deliver it:

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– though even at 1:49 p.m., when they gave up on it, the roads weren’t very bad.

Today, they didn’t even attempt a delivery:

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I can’t say I entirely blame them. The road to the house is fine, but the driveway is so bad that I can’t even get up it with four wheel drive.

This isn’t a big problem, though, really, because the UPS depot is about four miles from here, and I drive past it when I go anywhere. I checked the UPS website and found that I could pick up Air packages until 7:00 p.m.:

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And I went down there.

You know the punchline, of course? Right. You can’t pick up Air packages until 7:00: they ‘pick up’ Air packages from there at 7 p.m. From a customer’s perspective, they really mean ‘drop off’, as in ‘you can drop off Air packages until 7 p.m.’

The hours are defined from their perspective, which I suppose I shouldn’t find all that surprising given the rest of the way they relate to their customers.

But the real punchline is that Nicole bought a pair of shoes from a private seller on eBay within minutes of me placing my Zappos order. That package arrived today, from Los Angeles, via Priority Mail. Little Guy: 1, Big Company With UPS Contract: 0

What's Cheesing Me Off Today

In July, I wrote about the local grocery store’s practice of promising fresh bread at 5 p.m., and then failing to deliver. I accompanied that complaint with this picture of the bread basket, complete with sign, already filling up with trash at 5:33 p.m.:

Fresh At 5

Today I happened to be looking for bread at exactly 5:00 p.m.

They’d removed the basket entirely. I don’t think this is a permanent departure; rather I think that they have amended their policy to a far more pragmatic one, which might be expressed as ‘If we have fresh bread at 5 p.m., we’ll have fresh bread at 5 p.m. Otherwise, all bets are off.’ Lovely.

But that’s not all the unpredictability afoot!

We don’t subscribe to any newspapers here at Tino Manor; instead, I buy them on those days when I’m out and about in the morning. There is even a newspaper machine nearby, so I can drop in my thirty-five cents and buy the Washington Post without having to stand in line and get a receipt and a bag by buying at at the grocery store.

Post 35Cents

Except that it’s not thirty-five cents any more. Now, apparently, the Post is fifty cents:

Post Machine

The tiny print under the price on the front page of the Post says

Prices may vary outside Metropolitan Washington. (See box on A4)

The relevant part of the box on A4 says:

Box On Page 4

Of course, this all depends on how you define ‘Washington Metropolitan Area’. Tino Manor is out in the boonies, to be sure: but it’s well within the Washington-Baltimore-Northern Virginia, DC-MD-VA-WV Combined Statistical Area as defined by the census people. We watch Washington TV stations here. Half the town drives into Washington every day to go to work.

Moreover, the paper isn’t fifty cents everywhere; at the grocery store, you can’t get bread but you can get the Post for only thirty-five cents. I’m not sure whether this is because some places haven’t got the memo yet, or because these people have decided that the cost in terms of customer goodwill and trust is greater than the extra fifteen cents to be had by charging more than the price that’s clearly printed on the thing.

Anyway, so some places and some machines are now charging fifty cents for the Washington Post. What annoys me about this isn’t the extra fifteen cents. Even at fifty cents, the paper is a great bargain, and if it’s a little more expensive there’s some possibility that the lone paper machine on my side of town won’t be sold out before 9:00 a.m. every day.

What annoys me is that it’s more unpredictability. The paper is thirty-five cents, unless you’re outside of an area that’s not clearly, consistently, or constantly defined. This is particularly annoying with something this casually purchased. I’m already incurring enough extra cost in trying to find a place where I can buy the Post without standing in line behind lottery fiends, and where it doesn’t sell out before dawn. I don’t also need to keep track of a private definition of ‘Washington Metropolitan Area’.

Unpredictability At The Airport

They are changing the airport security regime again:

Under the new plan, more passengers will likely be subjected to secondary screening, and pat-downs will include arms and legs as well as the torso. More canine teams will patrol airports. Passengers also can expect more randomness at security gates so would-be terrorists won’t know for sure what they might see.

For example, an airport might require all passengers to remove their shoes one day but not the next. Some passengers may have to show their identification an extra time or have their carry-on bag hand-searched.

“By incorporating unpredictability into our procedures and eliminating low-threat items, we can better focus our efforts on stopping individuals who wish to do us harm,” Hawley said.

I’m not sure how good an idea this is. On the one hand, making the process unpredictable will presumably make it that much harder for any would-be bad guys to find some way to get prohibited items through the checkpoint.

On the other hand, though, deliberately making the process unpredictable will undoubtedly cause more delays as passengers won’t be able to anticipate what’s going to be required of them — and it’ll probably be a bust anyway because I can’t imagine the government actually doing truly random things. The government has a culture entirely based on procedure; and even if you write a procedure that says ‘vary the procedures wildly’, it’s still going to mean culture shock.

Oh the third hand, though, it appears that we will once again be able to carry pocketknives etc. onto airplanes, the government having after four years completed its procedure for noticing that these are not actually a threat.

A Trip To The Mall

The Tyson’s Corner Mall, Sunday afternoon.

The big news around here — and this will tell you a lot about what Washington is like apart from the earth-shaking affairs-of-state stuff that goes on in the fancy buildings downtown — is that the big addition to the Tyson’s Corner Mall is open.

Nicole and I were in the area, so we decided to drop in and see what it was like.

We were coming from Maryland on the Beltway, so we entered via the bridge over 123; the idea here is that people coming from the Beltway can then get into the mall via three right turns, rather than a mad dash from the Beltway exit and into the left turn lane.

This winds up shooting you straight at the mall’s new parking garage, which would be great except that twenty feet inside the entrance people entering the garage are instructed by a sign to YIELD to people already in there.

So when the mall is even a little bit crowded, the signal-controlled intersection just outside the garage winds up gridlocked.

And the mall was more than a little bit crowded; it was jammed. It was like the day after Thanksgiving in there. It took us fifteen minutes just to park the car in the garage, because you can’t just zip up to the (largely empty) upper floors and park there. No, to get to the higher floors you have to drive past at least twenty parking spaces (not to mention large roped-off areas reserved for valet parking) on each of the lower floors. This means that you’ve got to wait for people who are leaving to pull out of their spaces, and for the people who are replacing them to jockey their cars around in 23-point turns.

Eventually, though, we crept past all of this, parked the car about 40 feet from the bridge to the mall, and went inside.

Pandemonium. The place was jammed with people, with all that that entails. In malls, a lot of people walk quite slowly, either because they’re too fat to move any more quickly, or because they’re window shopping.

Unfortunately, the trend of cluttering up the mall with all sorts of low-rent pushcarts selling cheap plastic crap means that there’s almost no way to get around these people.

The slow-walkers aren’t the real problem though: the dead-stoppers are. These are people — usually in groups of four or five — stop dead in the middle of everything and have a conversation. They were out in force on Sunday.

I believe that this is something ingrained in the culture. In the 1970s, William H. Whyte — best known among the general public for writing a book called The Organization Man — did a study of urban crowding in New York, Tokyo, and Manila. One of his methods was to make films of urban spaces and see how people distributed themselves. It turns out that this varies significantly from place to place:

Whyte Diagram

(Click for a bigger version)

On the left is a diagram of stationary people on the sidewalk outside a New York department store; on the right the sidewalk outside a Tokyo department store. In New York, people have a marked tendency to stop and loiter bang in the middle of the flow; in Tokyo, off to the side. And yet most of the people standing in my way at the Tyson’s Corner Mall this weekend appeared to be Asian and, unless I am mistaken, specifically Japanese. Clearly the melting pot is working.

But I digress. We wandered around the mall for a while, looking for a bathroom (which we eventually found, and found jammed with people but totally unjammed with such things as toilet paper or towels) and then for something to eat.

One of the big attractions of the mall expansion is the new food court. The Tyson’s Corner Mall did not, previously, really have a food court; it had a little food corridor that really wasn’t up to the task.

The new attraction had done its job, all right: it had attracted most of the population for miles around. We eventually concluded that there was absolutely nowhere to sit, and so gave up on the food court.

The food court is surrounded, though, by actual (chain) restaurants, whose websites I’m not going to link to because they all involve terrible, useless Flash splash screens. Screw ‘em.

The nearest one was TGI Friday’s, so we headed there. There was plenty of seating available there, and the Redskins-Broncos game on TV.

There were six employees standing around the entrance when we walked up, so there was some initial confusion about whom to approach for seating. After this sorted itself out, we were told that a table for two would be a thirty to forty-five minute wait.

The mall is jammed. The food court is packed. There is a gaggle of Friday’s employees blocking the door, and plenty of empty tables in there. And there’s a wait of three-quarters of an hour for a table because (they said) they were having some kind of staff problem. A shift change, maybe, or not enough people working in the first place.

Eventually we wandered down to the Sbarro, in the less-crowded, pre-expansion part of the mall. At Sbarro, it was the usual experience: the food cold before we sat down because paying for it takes forever because the employees move like they’re in a coma; trash all over the place; screaming kids; torn upholstery; paper napkins parceled out one by one by the comatose employees because excess napkin usage must be why they’re not making any money.

If you set out to create a more frustrating, less commodious place, I doubt you could do it. I understand that malls are deliberately manipulative places — this is presumably why, for instance, there’s now a quarter-mile stretch of mall with no way to get between floors except for a very slow elevator — built for the purpose of maximizing revenue. I have no problem with this.

However, it is a problem that the mall and its tenants seem to be taken entirely by surprise by the fact that crowds of people might, you know, show up there and want to spend money. Untold millions of dollars have been spent to create this temple to retail commerce, and the officiants are unable to perform the rite. Why?

Why should I attempt to go back to this place and attempt to do my Christmas shopping? Why should I go back there at all, except to buy something that’s available nowhere else (and nothing they sell there is available nowhere else)? What does this portend for American society and the economy?

It might be dangerous to draw conclusions from the Tyson’s Corner Mall, because it’s quite atypical. The famous Capital Beltway, the very emblem of atypicality, lies about 50 feet from the terrible new parking garage. Still, I cannot help but notice that the St. Louis Galleria (which I wind up in a few times a year) has almost precisely the same problems as Tyson’s Corner, despite being hundreds of miles away in the Midwest. It’s overcrowded (by design); it’s hard to park there; it’s hard to get there because it creates its own traffic jams; it’s hard to spend money there, because everything is operating at 110% of its real capacity; and I get a sore throat there after about a half hour because the air is too dry.

Famous St. Louisan Yogi Berra once said, of a nightclub or something, ‘Nobody goes there anymore; it’s too crowded.’ Like most of Berra’s famous one-liners, there’s a lot of truth in the statement’s contradiction, and I think there’s a real danger here for the retail industry.

I strongly suspect that this is a problem with a sharp tipping point, that the half-assed approach to retail will work up to a certain point (it’s working now, right? My main problem is that the place is too crowded), and then, suddenly, hardly work at all. You won’t see a gradual slackening of demand for malls where shopping is toil, something to which the industry could respond: I think that one weekend the retailers will simply find themselves peering up and down the empty malls, asking, ‘Where’s Poochie?’ You read it here first.

The Curse Of Abundant Choices

The lovely and talented Don Boudreaux comments on a letter that appeared in the New York Times. The letter was written by a correspondent in McLean, Virginia, one of the world’s wealthier places and a suburb of Washington, DC.

It’s impossible to really tell how much irony went into the letter, but for the moment we’ll take it at face value. Boudreaux quotes the whole thing, but here’s a short excerpt. It’s in response to a column about super-abundance in the United States, particularly focusing on the startling diversity of dental flosses that are available. The Times‘ reader writes:

Never mind the dental aisle. I can’t get past the orange juice with pulp, some pulp, no pulp, with calcium, without calcium, with calcium and extra vitamin C, with calcium and added vitamin D, low acid, blended with other fruit juices, from concentrate, not from concentrate, low carb.

What happened to just plain orange juice? Only Tropicana and Minute Maid know for certain.

Boudreaux scoffs lightly at the plight of the would-be orange-juice consumer in McLean.

Now, I don’t really care what kind of garbage the O.J. Trusts are selling in their paper containers: I don’t pay attention, because unless it’s fresh-squeezed, it all tastes horrible to me. The goodness of orange juice doesn’t survive pasteurization, and nearly all orange juice is pasteurized these days.

I do, however, pay attention to milk, because I use milk in my tea and on my Grape Nuts (when Grape Nuts are available, that is).

The dairy case, like the dental aisle and the orange-juice department, has exploded in recent years. I have my choice of milk, 2% milk, and skim milk; I can get all of those pasteurized, ultra-pasteurized, or organic (which is usually also ultra-pasteurized).

I can get each of them with regular or low carbs; I can get them with or without enzymes for the lactose-intolerant. I can even get ‘milk’ that actually has no milk at all in it, having been squeezed from the teats of soybeans in a process I don’t care to contemplate.

I can get them in regular, chocolate, or strawberry flavors, and I can get them all in half-pints, pints, quarts, half-gallons, or gallons. And despite the government’s price supports, I can get all of them for remarkably low prices.

Dairy Case

When I can get them at all, that is.

I prefer quarts of whole non-ultra-pasteurized milk. The ultra-pasteurization cooks all the flavor out of the stuff, and when you use a couple ounces of milk a day it doesn’t pay to buy it more than a quart at a time.

Unfortunately, whole milk in quarts seems to be almost totally unavailable here. There’s room for it on the shelf, but there’s only something there about one in five times that I look.

The milk cooler at my local supermarket is about 30 feet long, meaning that it’s got 150 linear feet is shelving for products, but the only things that are reliably available there are the soy milk (which is not in much demand) and the gallons of whole milk (which are something of a commodity and are thus stocked in enormous quantities).

I’ve written before about the unreliability of my supermarket, and this is just another example.

I’m all for an abundance of choice, but I am alarmed at what seems to be the usual practice of neglecting the tried-and-true classic choices that have a proven market in favor of something new. We need the new! We want the new! Bring on the choco-strawberry low-carb, no-fat, semi-gelatinous non-dairy soy-based beverage with added calcium! Suspend globs of candy in the stuff if you like! See whether people will buy the stuff, and congratulations to you if they do. You deserve your marketing-department bonus, because you have made the world a better place.

In the process, however, it’s important not to over-extend your company to the point where you cannot manage to supply those products that sell consistently and in volume with no expenditure on research or advertising.

If you have twenty different kinds of dental floss but only twice the shelf space you used for two kinds of dental floss back in the Dark Ages of only Mint and Unflavored, you are ten times more likely — assuming perfect distribution of both supply and demand — to run out of any one variety before you restock. Looked at this way, this abundance of minutely differentiated products doesn’t look like such a great idea unless you can inexpensively and competently manage to supply or sell a greater number of individual products than before. It’s a pity that few companies seem to be able to do this.

Why The Grocery Store Is Always Out Of Things

My comments on McDonalds’ (McDonald’s’? How do you do a possessive of a registered trademark that is itself already a possessive? McDonald’s themselves seem to prefer the ungrammatical ‘McDonald’s’ as the possessive, e.g. the large section about ‘McDonald’s commitment to diversity’ on their website. This is unpalatable because it seems to refer to something or someone called ‘McDonald’ and its or his commitment: Old McDonald had a diversity-enhancing, ‘minority’-boosting program, E I E I O. And through this program he hoped to avoid being sued, E I E I O. With a set-aside here, and a sensitivity initiative there, Old McDonald had his ass covered, E I E I O.)

Now where was I? Oh, yeah: my comments on some of McDonalds’ (damn them, I’ll do it my way) customer-service issues being rooted in their procedures’ inherent conflicts with logic and grammar seemed to strike a chord with a bunch of people, so I’m going to shamelessly attempt a repeat performance: Bart by the barrelful, I always say. Today, I will explain why my grocery store is always sold out of so many items.

Now, maybe your experience is different, but I find grocery shopping pretty frustrating. I generally patronize Martin’s in Front Royal. The Front Royal Martin’s is run by a guy who always wears a tie (so you can tell he’s the manager) but who seems to spend quite a bit of time in the store itself, rather than in his manager’s aerie counting doubloons or whatever it is most grocery-store managers do. Rarely do I go there and not see this guy in the aisles, stocking shelves, giving advice, or at least running around and giving a strong impression of Purpose.

This could just be a ruse, a George-Costanzian scheme of always appearing incredibly busy while actually doing nothing, but the odds are against it. I assume that this guy is at least an above-average grocery store manager, partly because of his visibility, and largely because the store itself is above average.

Oh, sure, there are some things that could use work: the salad bar’s closing seems tied mainly to the needs and desires of the staff, and not the needs and desires of Commerce; everything on the bottom layer in the fancy-cheese cooler tends to have been frozen at some point; the newspapers are badly placed; and the do-it-yourself tills are the inferior kind with the scales instead of the better (but larger) kind with the belts. These are, though, mainly minor things, and the store is, on the whole, good enough that I cannot understand how the competition (Food Lion) stays in business. The parking lots at both stores will attest to the fact that I am hardly the only person in Front Royal who prefers Martin’s to Food Lion.

The only, or at least the chief, fly in the ointment is that Martin’s is often out of things. Very, very rarely — if ever — can we get through a full shopping trip without at least one item on the list being out of stock. Most recently, it was Grape Nuts cereal.

I like Grape Nuts: so full of grapey and nutty goodness, they are. Eating Grape Nuts is like eating a bowl full of rocks, which is sometimes precisely what you need first thing in the morning. They make me feel like some kind of cartoon giant: I have been known to say ‘Fee Fie Fo Fum’ and to cackle maniacally while eating them.

But, the last time I bought Grape Nuts, it was at the hated Food Lion, because they were out of them at Martin’s — they were out of them for weeks.

And it’s not just Grape Nuts that they run out of. I went to the store today, and I took pictures of just some of the things that were out of stock:

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Note that today they did have Grape Nuts: but they’re well on their way to running out. They have plenty of South Beach Diet ‘wheats’, though.

I didn’t get pictures of everything they were out of, partly because I didn’t want to get thrown out, and partly because after a while I didn’t have enough memory in my camera to get a picture of every last thing that was out of stock: I only had 1GB in there.

I’m not really sure what Grape Nuts are made of, but I don’t think there are any particularly rare materials involved. I used to see a bumper sticker all the time, put out by the Mining Industry Council of Missouri, that said ‘If it can’t be grown, it has to be mined’. I have never seen a Grape Nuts bush, so I have to assume that the things are dug out of the ground by giant yellow machines somewhere in Michigan. (Similarly, as I can identify no vegetation or animal obviously associated with Cool Whip or Miracle Whip, I assume that these things are cracked out of some substance that’s pumped out of the ground in the Dakotas: Crude Whip. The Tino Universe is a very orderly, if inaccurate, place.)

My point, anyway, is that there is not and was no shortage of Grape Nuts: Martin’s was just out of them.

Things run out: I understand that. But what’s bizarre is that they were out of Grape Nuts for weeks, during which time — I went back every couple of days before I broke down and went to Food Lion — there were about a dozen boxes of something called ‘Grape Nuts Flakes’ on the shelf next to the bare spot where the Grape Nuts, in happier times, were to be found. (Much of the space formerly taken up by Grape Nuts Flakes has now been taken over by South Beach Diet ‘wheats’.)

Nobody wants Grape Nuts Flakes. I know this intuitively: Grape Nuts and Flakes are polar opposites in the cereal world. If you want flakes, you don’t want Grape Nuts, and if you want Grape Nuts, you don’t want flakes. You want flakes, you buy Corn Flakes; if you’re a Post partisan, you buy Post Toasties (but not at Martin’s, because they don’t sell Post Toasties at all there).

I don’t have to rely entirely on intuition, though: during the entire Grape Nut Drought, not one of those boxes of G.N. Flakes moved.

How can this be? How can a store with a diligent and hard-working manager be sold out of a very basic and popular item for weeks while having twice the shelf space devoted to a similar item that not only doesn’t sell out, but that doesn’t sell at all?

I’ll tell you how: it’s because supermarkets don’t, for the most part, actually function as markets any more. Or, at least, they don’t function as markets in the way you’d expect.

The grocery business is famous for its very low margins. The food that Martins sells me for $100 they probably paid at least $90 for. That 10% margin — and I’m being generous — has to pay for the building, the staff, the electric bill, and the profit. How do they do it? Well, yes, volume is part of it, thanks for asking. But they also effectively increase their margins while at the same time reducing their costs by farming out part of their operations to their vendors, and charging those vendors for the privilege.

Modern supermarkets are therefore less like ordinary shops, where the proprietor chooses a selection of goods, purchases them, and then offers them for sale, than they are like farmer’s markets, where individual vendors lease space from whoever owns the building.

In the cereal aisle, it works this way: assume that Martin’s has 100 linear feet of shelving that they decide to dedicate to breakfast cereals. They hold onto, say, 10% of this for themselves, for their twenty-pound bags of crumbly and slightly off-tasting things with carefully non-infringing names like Froonkenberry, Cheer-Os, and Corm Flakes. They then charge General Mills some amount of money for the right to put their products on 20% of the shelf space, and Post and Kellogg’s some other amounts for 35% each.

Kellogg’s, Post, and General Mills then develop marketing strategies and display guidelines, and send their guys in to stock the shelves with their products. Presumably the cereal people like this because they have more control over how their products are displayed: the Corn Flakes, a relative commodity, are always on the bottom shelf. Grape Nuts (and most of the other cereals for masochists) are on the top. In the middle, you find whatever bad ideas the cereal barons are really pushing at the moment: the children’s-movie-themed cereal of the month; Special K Now With Dried Lingonberries; Cheerios With Hollandaise Sauce; Atkins Brand Bacon Os; etc.

The problem is that this puts even more intermediaries between me and the brave men who toil in the cereal mines. We are supposed to be living in an age of disintermediation, but the way it’s generally being carried out, I don’t think we’re reaping any benefits from it.

In the old days, the grocery store bought its cereal from a grocery wholesaler who specialized in serving certain kinds of stores in a certain area; that wholesaler bought his wares from even larger wholesalers who specialized in certain types of goods. That wholesaler bought from the manufacturers and importers of those goods. By the time anything got to me, it had already been bought and sold four times. This is held to have been inefficient.

Today, when I manage to buy a box of cereal, I’m effectively buying it straight from the manufacturer. The grocery store just maintains a large building for the purpose of keeping all of this stuff dry, and they handle the mechanics of the transaction. In many cases, I’d bet they don’t even pay the manufacturer until they sell something off the shelf.

This is supposed to be more efficient, and it undoubtedly is. But it is more efficient at the cost of the most important function of a market — communication.

In those mythical, halcyon Old Days, when I wanted something that was out of stock, I’d tell the guy who ran the store. If he noticed a number of people complaining about (say) the lack of Grape Nuts, he might just come to the realization that he should order more Grape Nuts. He’d tell his supplier to send five more boxes of Grape Nuts in the next order, and the Grape Nuts problem would be solved.

Today, though, the guy wearing the tie at the grocery store doesn’t necessarily have anything to do with what’s on the shelves. The manufacturers determine what’s in demand by conducting surveys and focus groups, and by noticing what gets sold out before it’s restocked. They then apparently ignore most of this information and instead pack the shelves with whatever horrible fad the marketing department has fantasies of selling this week.

There’s nothing wrong with having vendors stock the shelves: but as the grocers have farmed that part of their business out, they have a responsibility to their customers — and to themselves and their stockholders — to see to it that the vendors are acting in everyone’s best interest, and not just in their own.

A lot of people complain about this. Usually, the complaints take the form of ‘Chain stores/restaurants/services stink’: very rarely, though, do people ask themselves why this should be. After all, a McDonald’s restaurant is a burger place with, ultimately, millions upon millions of dollars of capital behind it. Martin’s is part of an international conglomerate with enough volume to allow them, should they so choose, to have a full-time vice-president, with a staff, to do nothing but oversee their cereal aisles.

So why is it, then, that you almost always get better results from a place with maybe a million dollars in mortgaged-to-the-hilt capital, where the owner has to take time out from fine-tuning his inventory to change the light bulbs and mop the floor?

Because that small outfit not only has an actual channel for communication between customers and decision-makers, but it can make small adjustments to its operations. Large operations, despite their many advantages, seem totally unable to do this — and most of their ‘innovations’ have the effect, intended or not, of making communication and fine-tuning even more difficult. So even those items which are purchased and stocked by Martin’s, rather than by the vendors, don’t reflect the actual local demand: they reflect the opinions of someone making decisions with almost no relevant information.

And so they run out of Grape Nuts, and everything else.

Unpredictability At Work

The other day, a part literally fell off my car. Unfortunately, this car was manufactured by General Motors, so this in itself wasn’t particularly unpredictable. ‘Like a rock’, my ass: some particularly crumbly rock, perhaps.

Today, I called the Chevy dealer and asked if they had the part, a license-plate light housing, in stock. They said they did, and that it was only $11.52. So many of them fall off, you see, that they can pass the savings on to me. How do they do it? Volume.

Anyway, I checked the hours on the dealer’s website:

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But when I got there at 5:30, the parts department was closed. It appears that the parts department closes at 5:00, and has always done so.

The service guy who was there was nice, and he even apologized to me after checking that the website indeed had the wrong hours on it. He couldn’t do anything for me, though. Since the parts department of any car dealer has a lot of valuable, easily-fenced goods in it, they don’t give the keys to everyone.

The apology is how you know that this takes place in a small town. In the suburbs or the city, I’d have been made to feel that I was in the wrong.

The other way you know that this takes place in a small town is that, an hour later, they have actually updated the website:

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Though this doesn’t explain what the service guy was doing there with the door unlocked at 5:30. And, of course, it doesn’t explain why it fell to me, a customer, to expose this problem for them.

This isn’t the first time I’ve run in to a problem like this, particularly when dealing with websites of non-technical people. It’s better to give out no information at all than to give out inaccurate information, but a lot of people — and most car dealers would definitely fall into this category — aren’t particularly aware of their web presence from day to day, and it never occurs to them to make sure that they’re not spreading disinformation.

Hotel Allegro, Chicago (Review)

Nicole and I recently stayed at the Hotel Allegro in Chicago. It’s at 171 W. Randolph, which, if you’re not familiar with the city, is on the north end of the Loop, very near where the big car chase in The Blues Brothers ends. The hotel is part of the Kimpton chain of funky hotels.

We stayed there entirely on the recommendation of a podcast, of all things. Not long ago, the Church of the Customer Podcast had a segment about Kimpton’s legendary customer service, and we figured that this was for us.

I generally hate hotels. I don’t think I live in the lap of luxury, but I am nearly always appalled by hotel rooms. Maybe there’s something I don’t understand about the economics of hotel operations, but I do not see why it’s not possible to provide comfortable accommodations for under $200 a night — where ‘comfortable’ means ‘equipped with the ordinary amenities that the average guest has at home’. People do not drink out of six-ounce plastic cups; they don’t sleep on foam mattresses (cheaper Marriott properties used to be notorious for this) with rock-hard pillows and under cheap plastic blankets.

It looks like in this case, I am not alone in finding these things unsatisfying, as I read that much of the hotel industry is upgrading their rooms to get rid of a lot of the nastiest elements.

I must say that the customer service we received at the Hotel Allegro was mostly pretty good: the problem was that we required entirely too much of it, because the customer experience was, well, terrible. I call ‘customer service’ the willingness and ability of a company to solve problems when things go wrong: the ‘customer experience’ is everything about your interaction with them.

My overall impression was an unusual one: that the people actually working in the hotel were actually interested in our comfort and happiness, while the company was not, particularly — at least if the way the hotel is maintained is anything to judge by. Usually the situation is just the opposite: lots of literature from Corporate HQ about how important customer satisfaction is, and dead-eyed zombies behind the counter, looking daggers at you for presuming to spend money in their establishment.

To begin with, we were first put in a smoking room on a floor that smelled like the bottom of an ashtray. As soon as you stepped off the elevator, the smell hit you in the face. A lot of places have done this: because smoking can result in nasty smells, they put all the smoking in a certain area — and then pretend nobody’s smoking there. Smoking areas can be kept perfectly comfortable, if not pleasant, if you ventilate and clean them properly. Unfortunately, these days a lot of people seem to have the attitude that people who smoke should suffer as much as possible, so you rarely see good ventilation and cleaning.

The entire building had no ventilation — about which more later — and this floor really suffered for it. After checking in, we turned on the air conditioning and went out, hoping that this would help by ventilating the room a bit.

On our way out, we stopped at the front desk and mentioned that our bed didn’t have a down blanket on it, and could this please be changed. (The room was also pretty dirty, and we asked that it at least be dusted. I suspect that our room hadn’t been occupied in a while.)

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Left to right, top to bottom: Beat-up woodwoork makes the place look seedy; Nasty, filthy switchplates don’t help either; Wallpaper coming off the wall under the window doesn’t make me feel like a valued guest; It’s not good in the corner, either; Minibar door falling off announces indifference; Filthy grout in bathroom is icky. Not pictured: Lumps of dust adhering to main light fixture in bedroom; Banquet-hall chair in front of the desk; Lumpy bed; Comically-small closet; Chipped and banged-up doorframe; Incredibly noisy pressure-flush toilet. Clicking on any of the pictures pops up a bigger version.

The main reason we’d decided to stay in a Kimpton hotel is that they have down blankets on all the beds, instead of the horrible nasty Vellux plastic blankets you usually find in hotels. Our bed, though, in this Kimpton hotel, had a horrible nasty Vellux plastic blanket on it.

When we mentioned this to the desk clerk, he appeared mystified, as he did in all our subsequent interactions with him. If there was any customer service (as opposed to customer experience) failure at this hotel, it was him — unfortunately, I forget his name. He was young, and looked like he might just be starting out in the desk-clerking trade. Nevertheless he wrote down our request for a new blanket and another pillow on a post-it note, and told us he’d have housekeeping look into the issue of dirtiness, and we went on our way.

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Bean: closed for Tuesday through May

When we returned (from attempting to see the Millennium Bean, which was closed for polishing), we found another pillow on the bed, and another Vellux blanket in a plastic bag on the floor. The dust was all still there.

Based solely on this room, the Hotel Allegro is a dump, and nobody should ever stay there. This room cost $180 a night; for that price in downtown Chicago I do not expect luxury but I do expect cleanliness, and I expect the hotel to match its advertised description without my prodding. The room wasn’t really dirty in any absolute sense, but as hotel rooms are intimately occupied by a succession of strangers, they must be unimpeachably clean: and this room wasn’t.

I grabbed the new blanket in its plastic bag and headed back downstairs. As I was explaining that another Vellux blanket wasn’t what I was after (see also this), Young Desk Clerk Guy interrupted me and said, ‘I don’t need…’ — presumably he didn’t need me to bring the Vellux blanket down to the lobby. (Or maybe he was winding up for ‘I don’t need this‘ in which case I would have leapt over the counter and started strangling him.) Luckily, at this point the other guy at the desk, named Achim and much more competent, stepped in. A good thing, too: had I been told that I was doing it wrong on the second attempt to get the hotel to bring our room up to the advertised specification, I think I would have been in a cab to the Hyatt five minutes later, after having made a scene in the Allegro lobby.

Achim stepped in an apologized. He said that some of their down blankets were out for dry cleaning, and that they’d been mistakenly replaced with the plastic ones instead of other down blankets. I think that was an artful deception, actually: I doubt they put the expensive and odor-absorbing down blankets on the stinky floor.

In any case, he moved us to another floor, and into a suite. (Or, rather, they gave us new keys and then we schlepped our stuff to the new suite on our own.) This was particularly nice, as the original room hadn’t been renovated aside from having had new wallpaper, carpet, and light fixtures (badly) installed. It would have been reasonable for a cheap hotel room in Manhattan, but this room was neither especially cheap nor in New York. The suite was about three times the size of the original room, and the furniture was all in better condition. There was also a down blanket already on the bed.

We turned the air conditioning down to 63 degrees — we like to sleep in a cold room under a warm blanket — and headed out for dinner to Club Lucky, and then for drinking at Silver Cloud.

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Mmmm: Toasty.

We returned at about 9 p.m. to find the room still a balmy 73.6 degrees. We decided to give it a while longer, and so we watched a DVD on the in-room DVD player — and so learned that the easy chair in the living room was built for a pygmy and thus uncomfortable for normal people.

Two hours later, the temperature was 73.4 degrees: at this rate, to get the room down to 68 degrees would take another 54 hours, by which time we would have checked out. I called the front desk and — though this was a different clerk — was again met with incredulity. Too warm? It’s too warm in your room? What do you mean, too warm? Did you turn down the thermostat? Well, we’ll send up an engineer.

The thermostat made some clicking noises and was reset to an even 60 degrees, and a short while later the on-duty engineer appeared. He took the grilles off the radiators and found that one of them had both hot water and cold water flowing through it. He turned off the hot water and said that would help.

He also explained that they didn’t actually have their air-conditioning system turned on yet.

To comprehend what he was saying, you have to understand how large-scale air-conditioning systems work. The rooms themselves are cooled by cold water flowing through radiators, just as they are heated in the winter by hot water or steam flowing through them.

This water is made cold through a number of different means, depending on the outside temperature and humidity, the design of the system, and the need for cooling. If it’s cold enough outside, you can just run the water through a big heat exchanger that cools it down by exposing it to the low temperatures out there; if it’s dry outside, you can cool the water evaporatively; if it’s very hot or humid, you have to use an ordinary refrigeration system like the one you probably use to cool your house.

As it wasn’t very hot outside, the Allegro was probably just using a heat exchanger: they certainly didn’t have the refrigeration system turned on. The water coming through, the engineer told us, was at 50 degrees, which is marginally cool enough to do the job — if the hot-water valve hasn’t also been open. It was actually about 55 degrees outside, so if we’d been able to open the windows even a little bit the problem would have been solved: but all the windows in the hotel had been sealed; the engineer said that their insurance company had made them do this. Presumably a sufficiently misanthropic guest could toss stuff out the window and wreak some serious havoc 18 floors below — such an episode is actually part of the plot in Arthur Hailey’s Hotel (which is quite a good book, by the way).

On the one hand, I have some sympathy for the Allegro. Few places have such variable weather as Chicago in April. On the same day, you might wear both a tank-top and a parka at different times, and be perfectly comfortable in both. That you’d need serious refrigeration in a hotel in the shade in Chicago in April is not a foregone conclusion, and in many systems you can’t run the heating and the air conditioning at the same time.

On the other hand, I don’t really give a shit. I understand the challenges that the hotel faces with this particular situation, but then I expect the hotel to understand these challenges even better than I do, and to meet those challenges. This is why they get paid. If there were no challenges and no complexity to what they’re doing, they wouldn’t be able to charge money for their services.

We were ultimately offered yet a different suite that was already at a lower temperature, but as it was now after midnight and we’d unpacked a lot of our stuff, we decided to tough it out. With the hot-water valve closed, the temperature was dropping, and while it never did get down to what I would have liked, I was able to get to sleep in reasonable comfort.

The suite was, even with the air-conditioning problem, a good value for $180; but then of course the actual price of the suite, if you weren’t moved into it because of a cock-up on the hotel’s part, was a good deal more than $180 a night. It was a lot better than the original room, but it was not without its quirks: and by ‘quirks’, I don’t mean the random funky things like bottles of Mr. Bubble that make the Allegro a ’boutique’ hotel.

By ‘quirks’ I mean the light fixture — the one controlled by the switch just inside the door — that didn’t work. It probably just needed a new light bulb, but why on earth should a guest be the one to discover this? I have no doubt it would have been fixed had I complained, but I had done enough complaining for one visit: when I discovered this, I just didn’t care any more.

Had the Allegro bothered to check out this suite themselves when they were moving us into it, they would (hopefully) have noticed this on their own. In any case, during the two days we occupied this room, housekeeping apparently never noticed the problem, either:

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By ‘quirks’ I mean the shower valve installed upside-down:

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This is actually dangerous, as the whole point of the strange hotel-shower temperature control thing is to make it difficult or impossible to scald yourself. Normally, when you first turn the handle, you get all cold water: turning it further introduces greater amounts of hot water into the mix, up to a pre-set point that is presumably below a temperature that would seriously injure you. Since nearly all American hotels use the same thing in the shower, too, guests are safer because they don’t have to figure out a new system every time they stay in a different hotel.

At the Allegro, though, the pipes in the wall must have been installed backwards — and then this problem was ‘solved’ by also installing the valve backwards — because as soon as you turned the water on, you got 100% hot water. Turning it further toward ‘hot’ produced cooler water.

I just want to make this absolutely clear: this valve is mislabeled in a way that’s dangerous and potentially life-threatening for particularly inattentive guests. I am not intimately familiar with Chicago building codes, but it’s also almost certainly illegal.

By ‘quirks’ I mean the GFCI receptacle that was falling out of the wall next to the sink:

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This isn’t actually particularly dangerous, but it’s certainly inconvenient and probably, again, in violation of the electrical code.

And this was aside from the minor annoyances, like the grimy switchplate in the bathroom (what the heck is their problem with the electrical plates? Motel 6 does a better job), the hole in the wallpaper, the light fixture that was furry with dust, the bathroom vent ditto, and the messy tangle of wires under the desk, in full view of the entire living room:

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(All of these, and most of the other pictures here, will pop up bigger versions if you click on them.)

I suppose it really says something about the value of viral marketing that I would be willing to risk staying in a (different) Kimpton hotel again, even after this experience. Random people on the web have no reason to lie about their experiences: if they say Kimpton hotels are good, then it’s not unreasonable to expect that they actually are good. Corporate marketing and advertising types will always say that their product is the cat’s pajamas, because saying that is their job.

However, I’m somewhat reluctant to say that our experience was just an outlier: I had three contacts with front-desk staff who were baffled by simple requests (‘blanket’, ‘cooler’), and we were in two rooms that were definitely not clean or in good condition — though the suite wasn’t absurdly so.

So how does Kimpton live up to their viral reputation for service? One of the links prominently featured on their website is ‘Kimpton Cares’. Aha, I thought. Kimpton cares! That’s impressive — a link to their customer-service people prominently displayed on the front page, instead of hidden behind ‘contact us’ in 9-point type next to the copyright notice. (Those ‘contact us’ links as often as not really just shunt you into a system designed to make sure that you don’t contact them, too.)

So I click on ‘Kimpton Cares‘. What do they care about? ‘Social Responsibility’. Women’s History Month, Dress For Success (i.e. white-collar coaching for poor women who want to get ahead), red ribbons for AIDS, ‘EarthCare’, i.e. environmental causes.

They really only care about customers, at least in the ‘Kimpton Cares’ sense, if those customers are homosexuals. They feature their special gay-magazine ad, and link to their special GLBT homepage that touts their Pride discounts and so forth.

I’m all in favor of these things, too: I’m in favor of women, against AIDS, and pro-Earth. I have nothing against homosexuals, and marketing directly and specifically to the gay community is a good idea. But it turns out that the only customer service link on their site is ‘contact us’, and it is down by the copyright notice — featured less prominently than the link to their ‘diversity’ page — and it does just give their reservations 800 number and a web form to type your comments into.

Perhaps I’m not really in the market for a ‘lifestyle’ hotel: I can bring in da funk by own bad self, thank you very much. I don’t need ‘lifestyle’ from a hotel, I need comfort and cleanliness without my having to stage-manage the experience. Boring is just fine, actually.

But somehow I think that the people for whom boring isn’t fine in a hotel — apparently these people are all gay — want cleanliness etc. as well.